1
Mandalorian
5yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 97
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
11/10
Win Prob
100%
Place Prob
90%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 2.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.6
Today:
Class gap: -2.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-06 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2024-09-14 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2024-08-29 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2024-06-06 | Churchill Downs | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2024-05-11 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 10th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/05/2024 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 06/06/2024 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 89% | +0.02 |
| 29/08/2024 | 1st | 4/11 | 98% | 100% | +0.02 |
| 14/09/2024 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 06/07/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |