2
Sanzio
4yo Gelding · 8-9 · OR 83
Finger Lakes · Race 1 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength8%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-05-24 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 5th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-05-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-25 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-04-02 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength41%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/12/2025 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 04/02/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 28/02/2026 | 1st | 25/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 02/04/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 25/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 33% | -0.19 |
| 12/06/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 15/07/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |