Evanderkeen
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 79
Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
22%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2026-05-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2026-04-21 | Turf Paradise | ? | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-03-02 | Turf Paradise | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2026-02-12 | Turf Paradise | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/12/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 38% | -0.10 |
| 15/01/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 27/01/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 12/02/2026 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 02/03/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 21/04/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 07/07/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |