3
John The Baptist
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 46
Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
58%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 16/09/2025 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 15/10/2025 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 43% | -0.18 |
| 28/10/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 25/11/2025 | 8th | 7/2 | 82% | 22% | -0.59 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 23/06/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 21/07/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |