2
Real Eleve
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 62
Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-11 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 6
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength9%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 24/11/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 17% | -0.20 |
| 25/05/2026 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 25% | -0.36 |
| 16/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 06/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 27/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |