1
Stjames
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 78
Finger Lakes · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#4
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
11%
Place Prob
17%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 20% | -0.38 |
| 11/07/2025 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 03/08/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 40% | -0.18 |
| 18/08/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 71% | -0.20 |
| 03/09/2025 | 6th | 6/4 | 92% | 0% | -0.92 |
| 09/06/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 21/07/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |