The Institute
7yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 85
Finger Lakes · Race 4 - Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
60%
Place Prob
39%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.2 /10 (raw 3.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2025-10-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 19/08/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 17/09/2025 | 6th | 8/1 | 58% | 29% | -0.29 |
| 01/10/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 27/10/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 13/11/2025 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 40% | -0.26 |
| 25/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 75% | -0.21 |
| 10/06/2026 | 4th | 5/4 | 93% | 40% | -0.53 |
| 08/07/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 25% | -0.62 |