5
Bad Connection
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 60
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength19%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-14 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 10
▲ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price
Trend▬
Strength46%
What the projection says
Edging in front of its market price lately. Projected 5th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/12/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 03/01/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 04/02/2026 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/02/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 27/04/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 05/05/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 20/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 29/06/2026 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 83% | +0.83 |
| 22/07/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 40% | +0.03 |