Bustinroxy
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 65
Finger Lakes · Race 5 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-09-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-13 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/11/2024 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 28/04/2025 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 71% | -0.23 |
| 14/05/2025 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 75% | -0.13 |
| 10/06/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 29% | -0.19 |
| 22/07/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 20% | -0.43 |
| 13/08/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 03/09/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 30/09/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 10/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |