2
Almond Cider
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 61
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength30%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/08/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 08/09/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 24/09/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 40% | -0.07 |
| 07/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 18/05/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 02/06/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 23/06/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 20/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |