7
Breaking Stones
8yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 80
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
11/4
Win Prob
43%
Place Prob
38%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-30 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-06 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength80%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/04/2025 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 26/05/2025 | 6th | 7/2 | 82% | 17% | -0.65 |
| 01/07/2025 | 1st | 10/11 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 06/08/2025 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 02/09/2025 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 43% | -0.20 |
| 30/09/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 25/11/2025 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 80% | +0.01 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |
| 22/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 67% | -0.19 |