6
Captainofmyheart
6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 69
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength37%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-11-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-10-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength42%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/06/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 01/07/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 25/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 86% | +0.15 |
| 10/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 24/09/2025 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 15/10/2025 | 1st | 14/1 | 26% | 100% | +0.74 |
| 25/11/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 02/06/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 22/06/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |