5
Jewels In The Bay
7yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 67
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#6
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength8%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-29 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-03 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength84%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 30/09/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 15/10/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 03/11/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 43% | +0.27 |
| 28/04/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 12/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 6/1 | 68% | 20% | -0.48 |
| 29/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 43% | -0.31 |
| 14/07/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |