8
Monomoy Beach
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 69
Finger Lakes · Race 6 - Claiming · 6f
#7
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength11%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-22 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-10 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-08-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-07-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength38%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/06/2025 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 17/06/2025 | 1st | 6/4 | 92% | 100% | +0.08 |
| 02/07/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 15/07/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 04/08/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 20/08/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 24/06/2026 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 22/07/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |