1
Resilient Hero
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 76
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength9%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 7.5 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-14 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-05-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-04-02 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 8th | −2 |
| 2026-03-15 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 5th | −2 |
| 2026-02-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 10th | −3 |
| 2026-01-03 | Aqueduct | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 6
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/08/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 07/11/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 29/11/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 03/01/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 19/02/2026 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 15/03/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 02/04/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 14/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |