4
Valentinian
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 95
Finger Lakes · Race 7 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
5/4
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-12-26 | Aqueduct | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-10-11 | Keeneland | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 6
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/06/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 60% | -0.16 |
| 19/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 17/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/8 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 13/09/2025 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 67% | +0.01 |
| 11/10/2025 | 11th | 7/1 | 63% | 9% | -0.54 |
| 26/12/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |
| 06/02/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 07/03/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 07/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 75% | -0.18 |