7
Fedalia
8yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 39
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#10
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength16%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Finger Lakes | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-09-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-08-19 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-06-25 | Finger Lakes | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength10%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2024 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 28/08/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 09/06/2025 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 25/06/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 04/08/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 19/08/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 02/09/2025 | 2nd | 14/1 | 26% | 86% | +0.59 |
| 16/09/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 05/05/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |