4
Red Butterfly
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 57
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength18%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-06-15 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-02 | Finger Lakes | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-20 | Finger Lakes | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-11-24 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-12 | Finger Lakes | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 10
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 88% | +0.88 |
| 15/10/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 75% | +0.22 |
| 28/10/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 12/11/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 88% | +0.01 |
| 24/11/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 20% | -0.68 |
| 20/05/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |
| 02/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 15/06/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 27/07/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 13% | -0.03 |