6
Tumbles
6yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 51
Finger Lakes · Race 8 - Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength43%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.1
Today:
Class gap: +0.4
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-21 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-18 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-11-04 | Finger Lakes | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-01 | Finger Lakes | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-09-16 | Finger Lakes | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 10
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 19/08/2025 | 2nd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 03/09/2025 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 16/09/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 01/10/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 04/11/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/11/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 08/07/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 21/07/2026 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |