8
Dan's Candi Girl
6yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 80
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-05-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-05-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 8
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength71%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/06/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 19/03/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 29/04/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 14/05/2026 | 2nd | 13/8 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 28/05/2026 | 3rd | 6/4 | 92% | 60% | -0.32 |
| 10/06/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 80% | -0.11 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 90% | +0.16 |