Fondre
5yo Mare · 8-10 · OR 76
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 1 - Starter Optional Claiming · 5f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-12 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-25 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-06-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-05-10 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/01/2026 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 38% | +0.22 |
| 12/02/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 12/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 26/04/2026 | 5th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 10/05/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 21/05/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 33% | +0.07 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 25/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |