5
Cigaronthebeach
4yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 76
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 10 - Allowance · 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength21%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-10-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-06-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-05-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-04-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength19%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/05/2024 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 25% | -0.22 |
| 10/06/2024 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 24/04/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |
| 03/05/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 80% | +0.19 |
| 25/06/2025 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 28/08/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 07/10/2025 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 25% | -0.12 |
| 06/05/2026 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |