2
Watch For Estela
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 74
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 10 - Allowance · 110y
#8
Rank
Odds
15/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength13%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA70 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-08-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 9th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 12
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/08/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 56% | -0.27 |
| 25/10/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 14/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 50% | +0.03 |
| 07/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |