5
Air Up There
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 65
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength61%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.1
Today:
Class gap: +1.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
| 2025-10-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | -1th | +2 |
| 2025-09-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-09-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 0th | +2 |
| 2025-07-17 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength53%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 11/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 86% | +0.04 |
| 25/09/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 80% | -0.13 |
| 29/10/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 21/05/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 56% | +0.40 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |