IvyArcIvyArc
7

Jordans Deal

4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 66

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

100%

Place Prob

92%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength54%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.4 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.9
Today:
Class gap: +0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 26/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 79 · 6f Fas 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/06/2025 · OR 79 par26/06C6OR 79C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 17/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 78 · 6f Slo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/08/2025 · OR 78 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 09/09/2025 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 76 · 1m Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark09/09/2025 · OR 76 par9/09C6OR 76C9 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 25/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 72 · 5f Slo 117 · below its mark25/09/2025 · OR 72 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 16/10/2025 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 70 · 5f110y 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark16/10/2025 · OR 70 par16/10C6OR 70C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 29/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 58 · 5f Gd 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/10/2025 · OR 58 parC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 14/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 58 · 6f Fas 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/05/2026 · OR 58 par14/05C6OR 58C8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 18/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 6 · OR 63 · 6f Fas 122 · below its mark18/06/2026 · OR 63 parC8 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 09/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 5 · OR 66 · 5f110y 122 · below its mark09/07/2026 · OR 66 par9/07C8OR 66projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 7
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-09Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0
2026-06-18Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd3rd0
2026-05-14Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st-1th+2
2025-10-29Horseshoe Indianapolis?3rd1st+2
2025-10-16Horseshoe Indianapolis?5th3rd+2
2025-09-25Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/0625/0914/059/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 7
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength61%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/06/20253rd7/491%78%-0.13
17/08/20253rd8/1397%67%-0.30
09/09/202510th4/179%0%-0.79
25/09/20252nd9/488%89%+0.01
16/10/20255th2/598%33%-0.65
29/10/20253rd6/168%80%+0.12
14/05/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
18/06/20263rd7/491%60%-0.31
09/07/20264th5/287%25%-0.62