2
Pernicious
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 54
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength29%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-11-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 7
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength79%
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 7. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/11/2024 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 57% | -0.14 |
| 26/06/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 22% | -0.15 |
| 04/09/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 57% | -0.19 |
| 10/11/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 13/12/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 13/05/2026 | 5th | 4/5 | 96% | 43% | -0.53 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 83% | -0.07 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 86% | +0.17 |
| 08/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |