Theoretically
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 67
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 2 - Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 4.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-10 | Churchill Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-04-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 5th | +3 |
| 2025-10-15 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | -1th | +3 |
| 2025-09-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/07/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 56% | -0.10 |
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |
| 11/09/2025 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |
| 21/04/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 10/05/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 26/06/2026 | 8th | 100/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |