9
Don't Miss Out
4yo Filly · 8-7 · OR 88
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
10/3
Win Prob
18%
Place Prob
32%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 3.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-11-13 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-22 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 15/09/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 24/09/2025 | 2nd | 3/1 | 84% | 80% | -0.04 |
| 22/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/11 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 13/11/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 07/04/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 45% | -0.36 |
| 13/05/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 22/06/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 50% | -0.36 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |