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2

Spirited Justice

3yo Filly · 8-3 · OR 87

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f

#1

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

82%

Place Prob

67%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength24%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 2 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 2.0)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.8
Today:
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 02/07/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 5f Fas 1172/07C6C6 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 31/07/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 70 · 5f Slo 120 · beat its mark31/07/2025 · OR 70 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 82 · 6f Fas 112 · beat its mark10/09/2025 · OR 82 par10/09C5OR 82C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 01/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 73 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark01/10/2025 · OR 73 parC5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 25/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 78 · 6f 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark25/10/2025 · OR 78 par25/10C5OR 78C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 6 · OR 84 · 6f 115 · beat its mark11/05/2026 · OR 84 parC0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 10/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR - · 5f110y Slo 12210/06C?C0 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 11/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 6f Fas 12411/07C?projClass-projected finish: 1st of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?6th6th0
2026-06-10Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0
2026-05-11Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd2nd0
2025-10-25Horseshoe Indianapolis?2nd1st+1
2025-10-01Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st0th+1
2025-09-10Horseshoe Indianapolis?1st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today2/071/1010/0611/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength65%

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
02/07/20252nd13/266%83%+0.18
31/07/20251st8/1196%100%+0.04
10/09/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
01/10/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
25/10/20252nd2/598%90%-0.08
11/05/20262nd4/179%80%+0.01
10/06/20261st9/488%100%+0.12
11/07/20266th9/488%44%-0.44