3
Tetiaroa
4yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 81
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
13/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength36%
What the class read says
Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.2
Today:
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-26 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-04-10 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-22 | Churchill Downs | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-18 | Keeneland | ? | 10th | 5th | +5 |
| 2025-09-19 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength14%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 31/05/2025 | 8th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 19/09/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 63% | -0.14 |
| 18/10/2025 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 22/11/2025 | 10th | 15/2 | 61% | 10% | -0.51 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 33% | -0.14 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 26/06/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |