6
Turkish Pistachio
3yo Filly · 8-6 · OR 82
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 3 - Allowance · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 6.4 /10 (raw 4.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-24 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-05-17 | Churchill Downs | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2026-04-23 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
| 2026-03-19 | Gulfstream | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-03-01 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/12/2025 | 2nd | 11/10 | 94% | 83% | -0.11 |
| 04/01/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 88% | +0.14 |
| 29/01/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 01/03/2026 | 6th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |
| 19/03/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |
| 23/04/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 17/05/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 24/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 71% | +0.24 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |