9
Countthecarats
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 72
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 4 - Maiden Special Weight · 5f
#1
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
94%
Place Prob
67%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-21 | Turfway Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-18 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-08-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 5th | −3 |
| 2025-06-28 | Lone Star | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength29%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/05/2025 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 13% | -0.40 |
| 28/06/2025 | 3rd | 40/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |
| 25/08/2025 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 03/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 78% | +0.62 |
| 18/09/2025 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 29/10/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 21/12/2025 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |