1
Chillax
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 100
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.2
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-04 | Aqueduct | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 9
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength14%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 86% | -0.06 |
| 26/09/2025 | 1st | 1/1 | 95% | 100% | +0.05 |
| 16/11/2025 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 71% | -0.20 |
| 06/02/2026 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 90% | -0.03 |
| 07/03/2026 | 3rd | 6/5 | 94% | 50% | -0.44 |
| 04/04/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 03/06/2026 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 38% | -0.31 |
| 13/06/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 03/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 83% | +0.46 |