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3

Fountain Lake

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 97

Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m 110y

#7

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.9
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Keeneland 08/04/2025 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 75 · 1m110y Fas 120 · beat its mark08/04/2025 · OR 75 par8/04C6OR 75C6 @ Churchill Downs 03/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 83 · 1m110y Slo 118 · beat its mark03/05/2025 · OR 83 parC6 @ Churchill Downs 01/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 86 · 1m110y Fas 122 · below its mark01/06/2025 · OR 86 par1/06C6OR 86C6 @ Churchill Downs 28/06/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 96 · 1m1f Fas 120 · below its mark28/06/2025 · OR 96 parBHA98 @ Saratoga 24/07/2025 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 98 · 1m1f 120 · below its mark24/07/2025 · OR 98 par24/0798OR 98C5 @ Keeneland 19/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 103 · 1m1f 118 · below its mark19/10/2025 · OR 103 parC5 @ Churchill Downs 16/11/2025 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 104 · 1m1f 118 · below its mark16/11/2025 · OR 104 par16/11C5OR 104C5 @ Horseshoe Indianapolis 03/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 101 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark03/06/2026 · OR 101 parC5 @ Ellis Park 06/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 95 · 1m110y 123 · below its mark06/07/2026 · OR 95 par6/07C5OR 95projClass-projected finish: 6th of 9
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-06Ellis Park?5th5th0
2026-06-03Horseshoe Indianapolis?4th4th0
2025-11-16Churchill Downs?5th5th0
2025-10-19Keeneland?3rd3rd0
2025-07-24SaratogaBHA985th11th−5
2025-06-28Churchill Downs?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/0428/0616/116/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 9
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength14%

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/04/20253rd33/10%82%+0.82
03/05/20251st10/147%100%+0.53
01/06/20252nd16/116%89%+0.73
28/06/20253rd7/491%67%-0.24
24/07/20255th20/10%20%+0.20
19/10/20253rd10/382%71%-0.11
16/11/20255th10/147%43%-0.05
03/06/20264th8/158%50%-0.08
06/07/20265th10/147%50%+0.03