He's Late Again
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 102
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-03 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-22 | Fair Grounds | BHA93 | 1st | 6th | −4 |
| 2026-02-06 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-12-13 | Fair Grounds | ? | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-11-22 | Fair Grounds | ? | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2025-03-22 | Fair Grounds | BHA84 | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 01/03/2025 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 20% | -0.06 |
| 22/03/2025 | 2nd | 40/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 22/11/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 80% | +0.27 |
| 13/12/2025 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 20% | -0.17 |
| 06/02/2026 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 60% | -0.19 |
| 22/03/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 03/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |