6
Palm Tree
5yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 102
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength22%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-14 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-07-29 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-04 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-05-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-04-13 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-03-06 | Turfway Park | ? | 4th | 7th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 9
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength74%
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/10/2024 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 33% | -0.25 |
| 14/12/2024 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 30% | -0.17 |
| 01/02/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |
| 06/03/2025 | 4th | 2/1 | 89% | 57% | -0.32 |
| 13/04/2025 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 03/05/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 91% | +0.09 |
| 04/07/2025 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 55% | -0.28 |
| 29/07/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.13 |
| 14/07/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 86% | +0.28 |