5
Weaponized
4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 89
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 5 - Allowance · 1m 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲2
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -2.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-23 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-02-19 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2026-01-15 | Turfway Park | ? | 11th | 14th | −3 |
| 2025-12-12 | Turfway Park | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-11-20 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-10-23 | Keeneland | ? | 8th | 10th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 9
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/03/2025 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 9% | -0.38 |
| 20/08/2025 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 67% | -0.18 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 23/10/2025 | 8th | 10/1 | 47% | 13% | -0.35 |
| 20/11/2025 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 67% | +0.09 |
| 12/12/2025 | 6th | 20/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 15/01/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 9% | -0.07 |
| 19/02/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 23/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 67% | +0.14 |