5
Devils Red
6yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 74
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 7 - Claiming · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength3%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-19 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Hawthorne | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-07 | Hawthorne | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 12
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/10/2025 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 30/10/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 18/11/2025 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 17% | -0.57 |
| 07/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 17/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/10 | 94% | 60% | -0.34 |
| 07/06/2026 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 13% | -0.77 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 11/2 | 71% | 25% | -0.46 |
| 19/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |