6
Lucky To Dance
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 87
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#1
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
39%
Place Prob
33%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 2.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -1.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-29 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 16. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 11/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 86% | -0.08 |