2
O G Lemon Drop
3yo Filly · 8-9 · OR 69
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 8 - Maiden Special Weight · 1m
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength6%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.
Class-adjusted form 6.8 /10 (raw 5.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2026-05-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-06 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 12th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 16
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength54%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07/04/2026 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 06/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 25/05/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 11/06/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 11/07/2026 | 5th | 20/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |