10
Ap Im That Dove
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 63
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Paul Martin Overnight Stakes · 1f 130y
#9
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲3
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 8.8 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.2
Today:
Class gap: -2.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-30 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA64 | 5th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-06-11 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 9th | 10th | −1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
| 2026-05-01 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 3rd | 7th | −4 |
| 2026-04-07 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 12th | −4 |
| 2025-08-26 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength38%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/06/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 31/07/2025 | 8th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 26/08/2025 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |
| 07/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 01/05/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 21/05/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 11/06/2026 | 9th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/06/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 33% | +0.18 |