6
El Mr J D
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 71
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Paul Martin Overnight Stakes · 1f 130y
#1
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
85%
Place Prob
65%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 1.6 /10 (raw 1.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength68%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |