1
First Angel
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 73
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Paul Martin Overnight Stakes · 1f 130y
#3
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
5%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.6
Today:
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-24 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA81 | 5th | 9th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 56% | +0.08 |
| 24/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |