9
Lynard
3yo Gelding · 9-0 · OR 75
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Paul Martin Overnight Stakes · 1f 130y
#8
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.7
Today:
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-09 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | BHA77 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2025-08-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2025-05-28 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 7th | 11th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength87%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/05/2025 | 7th | 5/2 | 87% | 33% | -0.54 |
| 08/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 89% | +0.18 |
| 25/10/2025 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 05/05/2026 | 8th | 6/1 | 68% | 22% | -0.46 |
| 09/07/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 88% | +0.51 |