5
Sauce C
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 74
Horseshoe Indianapolis · Race 9 - Paul Martin Overnight Stakes · 1f 130y
#4
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength3%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.6
Today:
Class gap: -1.1
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-20 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-10-25 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-09-10 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-08-08 | Horseshoe Indianapolis | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08/08/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 10/09/2025 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 25/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 20/05/2026 | 5th | 10/1 | 47% | 20% | -0.27 |