11
Ashford Hill
5yo Mare · 8-7 · OR 46
Lingfield · attheraces.com/marketmovers Apprentice Handicap (AWT) · 7f 1y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#5
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.0 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-01 | Lingfield | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-03-04 | Kempton | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-02-10 | Lingfield | 6 | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Lingfield | 6 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Bath | 6 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength54%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/06/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 56% | -0.18 |
| 25/07/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 12/08/2025 | 11th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 13/09/2025 | 7th | 13/2 | 66% | 33% | -0.32 |
| 24/01/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 10/02/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 57% | -0.09 |
| 04/03/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 30% | -0.31 |
| 21/04/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 29% | -0.37 |
| 01/06/2026 | 3rd | 10/1 | 47% | 67% | +0.19 |