5
Optimatum
4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 67
Lingfield · attheraces.com/marketmovers Apprentice Handicap (AWT) · 7f 1y
#11
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength39%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.5 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-05-14 | Salisbury | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2025-11-21 | Southwell | 4 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-10-23 | Southwell | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-09-15 | Kempton | 5 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2025-08-07 | Nottingham | 5 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-08-01 | Newmarket | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength59%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/04/2025 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 22% | -0.49 |
| 26/06/2025 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 05/07/2025 | 3rd | 8/13 | 97% | 60% | -0.37 |
| 01/08/2025 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 07/08/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 15/09/2025 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 23/10/2025 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 89% | +0.73 |
| 21/11/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 11% | -0.05 |
| 14/05/2026 | 9th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |