Penfolds Grange
4yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 68
Lingfield · attheraces.com/marketmovers Apprentice Handicap (AWT) · 7f 1y
#9
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Ran competitively despite going/trip that didn't suit it, at this same level — those runs look worse on paper than they were. Back in its own suited conditions today. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-16 | Epsom Downs | 5 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-27 | Kempton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-28 | Lingfield | 5 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-01 | Kempton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-02-25 | Kempton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-01-29 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 11th of 11. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/10/2025 | 11th | 100/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |
| 23/10/2025 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 56% | +0.56 |
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 29/01/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 63% | +0.47 |
| 25/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 91% | +0.15 |
| 01/04/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 88% | +0.09 |
| 28/04/2026 | 6th | 11/2 | 71% | 44% | -0.27 |
| 27/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 85% | +0.32 |
| 16/07/2026 | 9th | 6/1 | 68% | 0% | -0.68 |