3
Rogue Dynasty
4yo Filly · 9-10 · OR 68
Lingfield · attheraces.com/marketmovers Apprentice Handicap (AWT) · 7f 1y
#6
Rank
Odds
5/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 2.8 /10 (raw 4.0)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 5
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23 | Yarmouth | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-30 | Brighton | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-09 | Brighton | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-01 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-20 | Lingfield | 5 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-13 | Lingfield | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 11
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength76%
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 88% | -0.03 |
| 08/08/2025 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 29/08/2025 | 9th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 13/09/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 20/03/2026 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 40% | -0.50 |
| 01/06/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 57% | -0.31 |
| 09/06/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 91% | +0.20 |
| 30/06/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 67% | -0.23 |
| 23/07/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |