10
Sub Thirteen
5yo Gelding · 8-11 · OR 55
Lingfield · attheraces.com/marketmovers Apprentice Handicap (AWT) · 7f 1y
#8
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength23%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 4.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 5
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-08 | Kempton | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-15 | Chepstow | 6 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Chepstow | 6 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Windsor | 6 | 13th | 14th | −1 |
| 2026-05-03 | Salisbury | 6 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-03-25 | Kempton | 6 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 11
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength48%
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 11. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/12/2025 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |
| 13/01/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 63% | +0.57 |
| 02/03/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 25/03/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 83% | +0.20 |
| 23/05/2026 | 13th | 22/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 06/06/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 30% | -0.25 |
| 15/06/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 78% | +0.51 |
| 08/07/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 89% | +0.89 |